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@#Objective To analyze the trend of the hemagglutinin(HA) and ovalbumin contents in the lot release of influenza virus split vaccines in 2021,and evaluate the quality and quality control level of the vaccines.Methods The HA and ovalbumin content data of influenza virus split vaccines from two domestic enterprises in 2021 were collected and collated. The mean value and standard deviation were calculated according to the first 40 batches of data of the enterprise in the year,and the warning limit and action limit were established. The trend analysis of the above indexes was carried out to evaluate the stability and consistency of the product quality of the enterprise. Statistical data comparison and consistency analysis were made between the test results of the batch inspected by the lot release institution and the results of the enterprise.Results Through the retrospective data analysis of quadrivalent influenza virus split vaccines from two vaccine enterprises A and B,it was found that the content of H1N1 subtype HA and ovalbumin in the two enterprises and the content of Bv HA in the B enterprise had out of trend(OOT)situations,while the trend of other items was stable. The results of paired student's t test or Wilcoxon signed-rank test of the samples inspected by the lot release institution showed that except Bv subtype HA(t = 1. 094 and 0. 742 respectively)and ovalbumin(w =-64 and 36 respectively)contents showed no statistically significant difference(P > 0. 05),the HA contents of H1N1(t = 3. 862,w = 232),H3N2(t = 8. 225 and3. 473 respectively)and By(t = 5. 616 and 4. 934 respectively)of the two enterprises had significant differences(P <0. 05). The results of enterprises were generally higher than the lot release institution. Bland-Altman test analysis found that the consistency between the test data of enterprise A's HA content and the data of the lot release institution was better than that of enterprise B.Conclusion The stability and consistency of data trends of active ingredients and main impurity ingredients of quadrivalent influenza virus split vaccine batches in 2021 were generally good. The trend analysis can identify potential problems in vaccine production,and enterprises should carefully implement trend analysis and effectively monitor the product quality of vaccines.
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Objective: To analyze the trends of incidence and age change for global female breast cancer in different regions of the world according to the database from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Time Trends (CI5plus) published by the International Association of Cancer Registries (IACR). Methods: The recorded annual female breast cancer (ICD-10: C50) incidence data and corresponding population at-risk data (1998-2012) were extracted from CI5plus published by IACR. The annual change percentage and average annual change percentage (AAPC) were calculated to examine the trends of incidence. The age-standardized mean age at diagnosis and proportion of incidence cases by age were calculated to analyze the relationship between incidence and age. Results: For crude incidence, except in Northern America, all other regions showed an upward trend, with Asia showing the most obvious upward trend (AAPC: 4.1%, 95% CI: 3.9%, 4.3%). For age-standardized incidence, in Asia, Latin America and Europe, the rising trends had slowed down, in Oceania and Africa, the trends began to be stable, and in Northern America, the trend showed a downward trend (APPC: -0.6%; 95% CI: -1.0%, -0.1%). The mean age at diagnosis were increased from 1998 to 2012 in Asia, Latin America, Oceania and Europe, with an annual increase of 0.12 years, 0.09 years, 0.04 years and 0.03 years, respectively. But after age-standardized, only Europe still kept increasing year by year, with an annual increase of 0.02 years, while Northern America showed a decreasing trend, with an annual decrease of about 0.03 years. Conclusions: From 1998 to 2012, the trends of incidence and age change for global female breast cancer vary in different regions of the world, and the global population aging is widespread, which affects the trend of the actual age change. Prevention and control strategies should be targeted at different age groups in different regions.
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Humans , Female , Breast Neoplasms/epidemiology , Incidence , Asia/epidemiology , Europe/epidemiology , Risk FactorsABSTRACT
Objective:To learn about the epidemic situation and trend of human brucellosis in Menyuan Hui Autonomous County (referred to as Menyuan County) of Qinghai Province, and to provide reference for formulating brucellosis prevention and control measures in Menyuan County.Methods:Data on human brucellosis in Menyuan County reported by the Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System of China Disease Control and Prevention Information System from 2013 to 2020 were collected and analyzed by descriptive epidemiological analysis (three distribution).Results:A total of 186 cases of brucellosis were confirmed from 2013 to 2020, with an average annual incidence of 14.553/100 000. The annual incidence rate was increasing year by year(χ 2trend = 22.08, P = 0.002). The cases were distributed in 67 villages of 12 towns; cases were more common in the age group of 15-< 65 years old (96.24%, 179/186), and there were more men than women cases (sex ratio was 3.89∶1.00, 148/38). Conclusions:The incidence rate of brucellosis cases in Menyuan County is increasing year by year, and the scope of its impact is constantly expanding. A multi-sectoral joint prevention and control mechanism should be established to strengthen management, increase the prevention and control of brucellosis, and stop the spread of the epidemic to surrounding counties and cities.
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ObjectiveBy using bibliometrics and scientific knowledge mapping technology， this study systematically combs and visually analyzes the research hotspots， frontiers and trends of infectious disease prevention and control in China in the past 30 years， summarizes the research direction in this field， combs the knowledge structure， and provides guidance and reference for subsequent research. MethodsThe databases of CNKI and Wanfang were searched by （"infectious diseases" or " communicable diseases"） and "prevention and control" not "chronic diseases"， The bibliometric software VOSviewer 1.68 and CiteSpace 5.8.3 were used to analyze the co-occurrence network of scientific knowledge maps from the keywords， emerging words， research authors， institutions and other aspects， and summarized the research hotspots， frontiers and trends in the field of infectious disease prevention and control in China. ResultsA total of 10 777 literatures were retrieved， and 7 676 literatures were included after screening. From the perspective of research trend， the number of published literatures in the field of infectious disease prevention and control in China showed an overall upward trend， and the number of studies was closely related to the outbreak of infectious diseases. The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention has played a leading role in the research. In terms of researchers' cooperation， Hao Mo， Li Chengyue， Wang Ying and others from Fudan University were the main researchers' cooperation teams. Tu Wenxiao， Meng Ling and Xiang Nijuan from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention were the main researchers. Wang Quanyi， Li Xinyu， Wang Xiaoli from the Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention were the main researchers' research teams. Yang Zhicong， Li Meixia， Luo Lei and other research teams from Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention have formed a relatively obvious cooperation network. Analysis of the keyword cluster atlas showed that the articles related to the prevention and control of infectious diseases mainly were focused on the epidemiology of new coronavirus infection （new infectious diseases）， school infectious diseases， common infectious diseases， and the related research of vector infectious diseases. The analysis of salient words indicated the research focus and trend change in different time periods. At present， the research focus and frontier in the field of infectious diseases are mainly concentrated in the field of prevention and control of new infectious diseases， such as the monitoring， early warning， reporting， emergency management， laws and regulations of the new coronavirus infection. ConclusionOur country attaches great importance to the prevention and control of infectious diseases， with extensive and in-depth research hotspots. In particular， research on emerging infectious diseases has developed rapidly and achieved remarkable results. With the application of molecular biology， big data， AI and other technologies in the field of infectious disease prevention and control， China's infectious disease prevention and control capabilities will be greatly improved. At the same time， it is necessary to strengthen the linkage between universities， disease control institutions， and medical institutions， and establish and improve a long-term normal prevention and control mechanism.
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Background Pesticide poisoning is not only a common acute poisoning, but also an indispensable public health problem. It is important to describe and analyze the epidemic characteristics and trends of pesticide poisoning for its prevention and control. Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics and trends of pesticide poisoning in Jiaxing from 2008 to 2020, and provide a basis for making effective intervention measures. Methods The relevant information of pesticide poisoning cases in Jiaxing from 2008 to 2020 was collected through the Occupational Disease and Occupational Health Information Monitoring System of the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System, and the demographic information was obtained from the statistical yearbook of Jiaxing. Joinpoint regression models were used to analyze trends in overall, gender, age, season, type of poisoning, and type of pesticide among poisoned individuals. Results A total of 3109 cases of pesticide poisoning were reported in Jiaxing City from 2008 to 2020. The overall pesticide poisoning incidence trended downward from 2008 to 2014, with an annual percent change (APC) of −9.0% (95%CI: −16.6%-−0.7%). The female pesticide poisoning incidence trended downward from 2008 to 2015, with an APC of −8.6% (95%CI: −13.9%-−2.9%). The 18-34 age group showed a decreasing trend of pesticide poisoning incidence from 2008 to 2015, with an APC of −11.0% (95%Cl: −17.4%-4.3%), and an increasing trend from 2015 to 2020, with an APC of 18.5% (95%Cl: 4.7%-34.0%). The >60 age group showed a decreasing trend of pesticide poisoning incidence from 2008 to 2014, with an APC of -12.9% (95%Cl: −20.4%-−4.7%). The second quarter showed an increasing trend of pesticide poisoning incidence from 2010 to 2020, with an APC of 4.4% (95%CI: 0.3%-8.5%); the third quarter showed a decreasing trend, with an APC of −4.9% (95%CI: −8.6%-−1.1%); the fourth quarter showed an increasing trend from 2015 to 2020, with an APC of 17.8% (95%CI: 4.4%-33.0%). Productive poisoning showed a decreasing trend, with an APC of −11.1% (95%CI: −16.2%-−5.7%); self-poisoning showed a decreasing trend from 2008 to 2014, with an APC of -9.5% (95%CI: −17.4%-−0.7%), and an increasing trend from 2014 to 2020, with an APC of 10.2% (95%CI: 0.5%-20.8%). The incidences of poisoning by herbicides, fungicides, and mixed formulations all showed an increasing trend from 2008 through 2020, with an APC of 8.6% (95%CI: 5.8%-11.5%), 9.1% (95%CI: 0.3%-18.7%), and 193.3% (95%CI: 11.6%-671.0%), respectively; the incidence of poisoning by other types of pesticides showed a decreasing trend from 2008 to 2020, with an APC of −14.1% (95%CI: −23.7%-−3.2%). Conclusion The overall reported pesticide poisoning incidents in Jiaxing City present a decline then a rise in 2008 to 2020. Relevant departments should take timely measures to prevent and reduce the occurrence of pesticide poisoning according to the changing characteristics and occurrence trends of local pesticide poisonings.
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Objective To explore the epidemiological characteristics and trend of lung cancer mortality in Suzhou, to predict the future lung cancer mortality by ARIMA model, and to provide a scientific basis for the research of lung cancer prevention and control strategy. Methods The annual change percentage (APC) was used to analyze the annual change trend of lung cancer mortality from 2001 to 2020, and the ARIMA optimal model was employed to predict the lung cancer mortality from 2021 to 2025. Results The average annual crude mortality of lung cancer in Suzhou from 2001 to 2020 was 46.45/100 000, while the standardized mortality was 23.51/100 000. In recent 20 years, the crude mortality showed an upward trend and the standardized mortality showed a downward trend (APC crude rate = 2.51%, APC standardized rate = -0.78% , P < 0.001). The standardized mortality of lung cancer in men was 3.22 times that in women. The mortality of lung cancer in people over 45 years old increased with the increase of age, but the mortality in the 30-59 years old group showed a downward trend year by year. ARIMA model predicted that the annual trend of lung cancer crude mortality will tend to be flat in the next five years. Conclusion The crude mortality rate of lung cancer in Suzhou shows an upward trend, while the standardized mortality rate decreases year by year, suggesting that we should pay attention to the prevention and control of lung cancer in the elderly, accurately identify high-risk population of lung cancer, promote health publicity and education, carry out lifestyle intervention, and popularize the early screening of lung cancer.
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ObjectiveTo understand the changes of health related behaviors among residents with chronic diseases，and to provide a reference for targeted health intervention. MethodsBased on the surveillance data of chronic diseases and relevant risk factors of the residents in Huangpu District from 2014 to 2019. The study focused on health related behaviors and sociodemographic characteristics which was analyzed by chi-square test. The Cochran-Armitage trend chi-squared test was used to analyze the standardization rate. ResultsSeveral behaviors had been ameliorated such as the health examinations （Z=-3.667， P<0.001）， the measurement of blood glucose （Z=-5.793， P<0.001）， daily vegetables consumption （Z=-5.741， P<0.001）， daily animal food consumption （Z=-23.214， P<0.001）， daily physical activity （Z=-18.361， P<0.001）， sedentary behavior （Z=4.190， P<0.001）， and current smoking （Z=4.615， P<0.001）. ConclusionAn improving trend of health behaviors is found among Huangpu District residents．Targeted health education and health promotion should be carried out according to the characteristics of the population in the future.
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【Objective】 To form the sampling data interval by retrospectively analyzing the sampling data of quality monitoring of fresh frozen plasma, cryoprecipitates and leukocyte-free platelets in all blood stations in Hebei Province during the past 7 years. 【Methods】 The data of blood component sampling from 12 blood station quality control laboratories in Hebei from 2015 to 2021 were collected. The FⅧ content and plasma protein content of fresh frozen plasma, the FⅧ content and fibrinogen content of cryoprecipitates, and the leukocyte residuals, red blood cell mixed and platelet content of leukocyte-free platelets were taken as the objects for discrete point and fitted curve analysis. 【Results】 The FⅧ level of fresh frozen plasma: (1.36±1.1) IU/mL, 5 blood stations showed a representative overall high or low or fluctuated characteristics; Fresh frozen plasm-plasma protein items: overall mean ±SD: (61.13±16.7) g/L, four blood stations showed scattered distribution or continuous high value scattered points; Cryoprecipitates FⅧ: the overall mean ±SD: (134.25±58.7) IU/mL, four blood stations showed the differentiation characteristics of continuous high, low or stable in the middle; Cryoprecipitates-fibrinogen items: the overall mean ±SD: (215.27±83.5) mg, five blood stations showed the overall high or low and fluctuated. Leukocyte-free apheresis platelet-to-leukocyte residual items: overall mean ±SD: 0.37±0.96 (×106/bag), two blood stations showed a relatively high representative overall characteristics, and the rest were concentrated between 0 and 1; The total mean ±SD of platelet-to-red blood cell mixture without leukocyte was 2.45±2.82 (×109/bag), with obvious segmented concentrated distribution, and scattered distribution in 3 blood centers. Platelet content: the overall mean ±SD was 3.14±1.55 (×1011/bag), many deviations were noticed in 3 blood stations, and 1 blood station showed representative overall high characteristics. 【Conclusion】 This analysis shows that the distribution status of each blood station in different items is similar. The distribution status of discrete point groups and the change trend of the concentrated part of the fitting curve show that there are some differences in the monitoring level between the quality control laboratories of each blood station, and the update of detection instruments and reagents and the selection of detection methods greatly affect the test results. The summary data presented the index interval framework formed in the past 7 years, which helped to understand the difference between the results of each laboratory, correct the accuracy of the test results, better play the guiding role of quality monitoring in the blood preparation process, and continue to enhance the standardization of the whole process of blood collection and supply in the province.
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Background Occupational injury is one of the important causes of death among the working population and a worldwide hot topic, but there are few relevant studies on the trend and prediction of occupational injury attributable deaths in China. Objective To analyze the trend of occupational injury attributable deaths in China from 2000 to 2019, predict the deaths of occupational injuries in China from 2020 to 2024 by contructing a gray GM(1,1) model, and provid a reference for surveillance and assessment of occupational injuries. Methods Mortality, crude mortality rates, and standardized mortality rates of occupational injuries in China by year, sex, and age groups were calculated using data of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. Join-point model was used to analyze possible trend of standardized mortality rate from 2000 to 2019, and calculate annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC). After a gray model GM(1,1) was established, the accuracy of the model was evaluated by posterior error ratio (C) and small error probability (P) and rated as Level 1 (good, C≤0.35 and P≥0.95) or Level 2 (qualified, 0.35<C≤0.50 and 0.80≤P<0.95). Then the gray model was further used to predict the number of deaths and standardized mortality rates of occupational injuries in China from 2020 to 2024. Results From 2000 to 2019, the deaths due to occupational injuries in China showed a downward trend, the number of deaths decreased from 111557 to 61780, the crude mortality rate decreased from 8.58/100000 to 4.34/100000, the standardized mortality rate decreased from 7.67/100000 to 3.65/100000, and the AAPC of standardized mortality rate was −4.0% (P<0.05); the number of male deaths decreased from 87760 to 49192, and the male standardized mortality rate decreased from 11.78/100000 to 5.68/100000; the number of female deaths decreased from 23797 to 12588, and the female standardized mortality rate decreased from 3.34/100000 to 1.55/100000; the AAPCs of male and female standardized mortality rate were −3.9% and −4.1% respectively. The accuracy of the established gray model for deaths (C=0.09, P=1) was rated as Level 1, and that for standardized mortality rate (C=0.41, P=0.9) was rated as level 2, which allowed for prediction extrapolation. The model showed that from 2020 to 2024, the number of occupational injury attributable deaths would be 76039, 73849, 71721, 69655, and 67649, and the standardized mortality rate would be 4.23/100000, 4.07/100000, 3.92/100000, 3.77/100000, and 3.62/100000, respectively. Conclusion From 2000 to 2019, the standardized mortality rate of occupational injuries in China showed a downward trend, and it is predicted that the standardized mortality rate from 2020 to 2024 will still show a downward trend, but the number of deaths will remain high, so it is necessary to continue to strengthen prevention and control of occupational injuries.
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Objective To investigate the tendency of viral hepatitis in Changning District, Shanghai, and to provide scientific evidence for decision-making of prevention and control. Methods Cases of viral hepatitis in Changning District from 2009-2019 were collected , and the epidemiological characteristics of viral hepatitis were analyzed by descriptive epidemiological method. Joinpoint regression analysis were used to estimate the annual percent change and average annual percent change, and to perform the trend test. Results Among the 2009-2019 in Changning District, a total of 3 397 cases of viral hepatitis were reported , the annual average incidence rate was 49.32/100 000. Results from Joinpoint trend analysis indicated that the incidence of viral hepatitis in Changning District was mainly due to hepatitis A and hepatitis B. Conclusions Although the annual incidence rate of viral hepatitis in Changning District is far below the incidence rate of viral hepatitis in China, but it still shows an increasing trend. This shows that the situation of prevention and control of viral hepatitis in Changning is still serious, and hepatitis B remains the key point of prevention of viral hepatitis in Shanghai.
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The study is about the investment behaviour of “Foreign Institutional Investors” (FII) in the Indian stock market w.r.t their trading behaviour and its impact on stock market movements. We have collected the daily data of investment of FII net equity investments and NIFTY 50 index in Indian stock markets for a long time period from the year 2000 to 2022. The paper used trend analysis and the relationship between FII net equity investments and NIFTY 50 index. The paper found a significant relationship and causality in the direction of NIFTY to FII investments. The FII are found to invest with consistency in the Indian stock market and are also responsible to contribute significantly to the development of the Indian stock market.
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Introduction: This study aimed to develop a model utilizing the data from the top 10 countries (as of August 22, 2020) with the maximum number of infected cases. These countries are the United States of America, Brazil, India, Russia, South Africa, Peru, Mexico, Colombia, Chile, and Spain. The model is developed using the newly infected cases, new deaths, cumulative infected cases, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 starting from the day on which the first infected cases of COVID-19 in each of these countries is diagnosed to the date August 19, 2020. Materials and Methods: This study includes data such as the newly infected cases, new deaths, cumulative infected cases, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 starting from the day on which the first infected case of COVID-19 in each of these countries is diagnosed to the date August 19, 2020, in the top 10 most affected countries. The data were obtained from World Health Organization (WHO) website. To fit the data into a regression model, IBM SPSS Statistics 21.0 was used. The linear, logarithmic, quadratic, and cubic curves were fitted to the newly infected COVID-19 cases and daily deaths due to COVID-19. In choosing the best-fitted model, the coefficient of determination (R-square) was used. Results: Cubic regression model is the best fit model for new infected COVID-19 cases as well as COVID-19 deaths. It has the highest R-square value as compared to the linear, logarithmic and quadratic. Conclusion: To control the spread of infection, there is a need for aggressive control strategies from the administrative departments of all countries.
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Objective:To investigate the trend of prostate cancer incidence in Chinese tumor registration areas between 1988 and 2015.Methods:Collect the data including number of males, prostate cancer incidence rate and age-standardized incidence rate by world standard population(ASIRW) in Chinese tumor registration areas between 1988 and 2015. Calculate the average annual increase rate, and evaluate the trend of changes in the incidence of prostate cancer in China.Results:From 1988 to 2015, the number of male population covered by Chinese tumor registration areas increased from 10.41 million to 162.76 million, an average annual increase of 10.72%.The incidence of prostate cancer increased from 1.71 per 100 000 to 10.39 per 100 000, with an annual percentage change of 6.91%. The ASIRW increased from 1.82 per 100 000 to 6.05 per 100 000, with an average annual increase of 4.55%. In 1988—1997, 1998, 1999—2008, 2009—2010, and 2011—2015, the average annual increase rate of the male population covered by Chinese tumor registration areas was 0.99%, 36.73%, 7.92%, 37.55%, and 20.88% respectively. The average annual increase rate of prostate cancer incidence was 8.43%, -0.75%, 12.08%, -9.74%, 3.01%, and the average annual increase rate of ASIRW was 5.94%, -6.01%, 8.88%, -7.04%, 0.78%, respectively.Conclusions:The incidence of prostate cancer in Chinese tumor registration areas increased gradually during the early era of epidemiological investigation, followed by a rapid increase and a subsequent mild increase. With the rapid changes in the national cancer registration area and the population covered, the incidence of prostate cancer has declined in a short period of time.
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Objective:To analyze the tendency of road traffic injuries (RTIs) among different age groups in China from 2004 to 2018 so as to provide a reference for targeted prevention of RTIs.Methods:Based on the annual traffic accident report data from the Ministry of Public Security of China and the China Statistical Yearbook, the age was divided into four groups: 0-14 years, 15-34 years, 35-59 years and ≥60 years. The total number of accidents, number of fatalities, number of injuries and age composition ratio of RTIs in different age groups were calculated from 2004 to 2018, and the mortality and disability rates of RTIs in different age groups were also calculated. The annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) of the total number of accidents, number of fatalities, mortality rate, number of injuries and disability rate of RTIs among different age groups in China were measured by Joinpoint regression so as to analyze development trend of RTIs.Results:From 2004 to 2018, the age distribution concerning the number of accidents, deaths and injuries of RTIs were mainly among 15-34 years and 35-59 years, with the composition ratio greater than 40%. The composition ratio of people aged ≥60 years was small, but was increased gradually. The fitted value of the segmented regression model had a small relative error with the actual value, showing good fitting effect. From 2004 to 2018, the total number of accidents, number of fatalities, mortality rate, number of injuries and disability rate of RTIs in China were all statistically descended (AAPC=-5.53， P<0.01；AAPC=-3.64， P<0.01；AAPC=-4.19, P<0.01; AAPC=-5.13, P<0.01, AAPC=-5.65, P<0.01). Total number of accidents, number of fatalities and mortality rate of RTIs in China showed a notable upward trend instead after 2016 (APC=8.15, P=0.03; APC=2.10, P<0.01, APC=1.55, P<0.05). From 2004 to 2018, the total number of accidents, number of fatalities, mortality rate，number of injuries and disability rate of RTIs among people aged 15-34 years and 35-59 years were statistically descended (AAPC<0, P<0.05), while the total number of accidents, number of fatalities, mortality rate, number of injuries, and disability rate of RTIs among people aged ≥ 60 years showed a notable upward trend instead (AAPC=7.13, P<0.01; AAPC=6.64, P<0.01; AAPC=3.37, P<0.05; AAPC=8.85, P<0.01; AAPC=5.83, P<0.01). Conclusions:From 2004 to 2018, the total number of accidents, number of fatalities, mortality rate, number of injuries and disability rate of RTIs present a decrease trend in China and among people aged 15-34 years and 35-59 years, while an upward trend in those aged ≥60 years. In particular, the RTIs among people aged ≥60 years in China show an increase significantly since 2016, so the education of traffic safety awareness for the elderly should be strengthened to prevent their occurrence of RTIs.
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Objective:To analyze the changing trend of the incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019, and predict the future development trend of liver cancer.Methods:The descriptive epidemiologic method was conducted. Based on the Global Burden of Disease data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, the crude incidence rate and total number, crude mortality rate and total number, age- and sex-specific incidence rate and number, age- and sex-specific mortality rate and number of liver cancer in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019 were collected. The age-standardized rate was calculated using the year 2000 China's standard population. Observation indicators: (1) the incidence and mortality of liver cancer in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019; (2) changing trend of the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019; (3) prediction of the incidence and mortality of liver cancer in the Chinese population during 2020-2044. Count data were described as absolute numbers, percentages and ratios. The Joinpoint V.4.9.0.0 software was used to calculate the annual percent change (APC), average annual percent change (AAPC) and its 95% confidence interval ( CI) of age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer in different time periods. The age-period-cohort model in the Nordpred package of R software (V.4.1.1) was used to predict the incidence and mortality of liver cancer in the Chinese population during 2020-2044. Results:(1) The incidence and mortality of liver cancer in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019: the crude incidence rate and the age-standardized incidence rate of liver cancer in the Chinese population decreased from 20.01/100,000 and 24.31/100,000 in 1990 to 14.80/100,000 and 9.71/100,000 in 2019, respectively. The crude incidence rate and the age-standardized incidence rate of liver cancer in the Chinese male popula-tion decreased from 27.88/100,000 and 34.76/100,000 in 1990 to 22.05/100,000 and 15.22/100,000 in 2019, respectively. The crude incidence rate and the age-standardized incidence rate of liver cancer in the Chinese female population decreased from 11.63/100,000 and 13.51/100,000 in 1990 to 7.26/100,000 and 4.29/100,000 in 2019, respectively. The crude mortality rate and the age-standardized mortality rate of liver cancer in the Chinese population decreased from 19.64/100,000 and 23.97/100,000 in 1990 to 13.20/100,000 and 8.44/100,000 in 2019, respectively. The crude mortality rate and the age-standardized mortality rate of liver cancer in the Chinese male population decreased from 27.03/100,000 and 34.10/100,000 in 1990 to 19.18/100,000 and 13.03/100,000 in 2019, respectively. The crude mortality rate and the age-standardized mortality rate of liver cancer in the Chinese female population decreased from 11.78/100,000 and 13.64/100,000 in 1990 to 6.98/100,000 and 3.97/100,000 in 2019, respectively. (2) Changing trend of the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019: the trend of age-standardized incidence rate of liver cancer in the Chinese population could be divided into 5 periods, namely year 1990 to 1996, year 1996 to 2001, year 2001 to 2005, year 2005 to 2010 and year 2010 to 2019. In these 5 periods, the APC of age-standardized incidence rate changed from 1.27%(95% CI as 0.81% to 1.73%, P<0.001) to 1.12%(95% CI as 0.91% to 1.33%, P<0.001) of the total Chinese population, from 1.68%(95% CI as 1.19% to 2.17%, P<0.001) to 1.65%(95% CI as 1.42% to 1.87%, P<0.001) of the Chinese male population and from 0.21%(95% CI as -0.32 % to 0.75%, P=0.406) to -0.14%(95% CI as -0.40% to 0.11%, P=0.241) of the Chinese female population, respectively. The trend of age-standardized mortality rate of liver cancer in the Chinese population could be divided into 5 periods, namely year 1990 to 1996, year 1996 to 2000, year 2000 to 2005, year 2005 to 2012 and year 2012 to 2019. In these 5 periods, the APC of age-standardized mortality rate changed from 1.47%(95% CI as 0.74% to 2.20%, P=0.001) to 1.34%(95% CI as 0.78% to 1.90%, P<0.001) of the total Chinese population, from 1.96%(95% CI as 1.18% to 2.75%, P<0.001) to 1.79%(95% CI as 1.18% to 2.41%, P<0.001) of the Chinese male population and from 0.14%(95% CI as -0.54% to 0.82%, P=0.670 ) to 0.48%(95% CI as 0.02% to 0.93%, P=0.041) of the Chinese female population, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the AAPC of age-standardized incidence and age-standardized mortality rates of liver cancer were -3.22%(95% CI as -3.41% to -3.03%) and -3.51%(95% CI as -3.82% to -3.19%) in the Chinese population, -2.90%(95% CI as -3.10% to -2.71%) and -3.22%(95% CI as -3.57% to -2.88%) in the Chinese male population, -3.96%(95% CI as -4.17% to -3.76%) and -4.13%(95% CI as -4.43% to -3.82%) in the Chinese female population, respectively. (3) Prediction of the incidence and mortality of liver cancer in the Chinese population during 2020-2044: the age-standardized incidence rate of liver cancer would decrease from 9.51/100,000 in 2015-2019 to 5.78/100,000 in 2040-2044 in the Chinese population, from 14.84/100,000 in 2015-2019 to 9.75/100,000 in 2040-2044 in the Chinese male population and from 4.28/100,000 in 2015-2019 to 1.88/100,000 in 2040-2044 in the Chinese female population, respectively. The age-standardized mortality rate of liver cancer would decrease from 8.40/100,000 in 2015-2019 to 4.62/100,000 in 2040-2044 in the Chinese population, from 12.91/100,000 in 2015-2019 to 7.59/100,000 in 2040-2044 in the Chinese male population and from 4.01/100,000 in 2015-2019 to 1.70/100,000 in 2040-2044 in the Chinese female population, respectively. The incidence number and mortality number of liver cancer from 2020 to 2044 would remain stable at around 160,000 per year and 140,000 per year in the Chinese population, 128,500 per year and 109,000 per year in the Chinese male population, 36,000 per year and 34,900 per year in the Chinese female population, respectively. Conclusion:The incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer in the Chinese popula-tion show a significant downward trend from 1990 to 2019, and the incidence number and mortality number of liver cancer in the Chinese population will remain stable above 100,000 during 2020-2044.
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Objective:To analyze the survival of pancreatic cancer cases in Qidong County, Jiangsu Province from 1972 to 2016, and provide a basis for the prognosis evaluation and prevention of pancreatic cancer.Methods:Data from a total of 4 341 registered pancreatic cancer patients in Tumor Registry of Qidong from January 1972 to December 2016 were selected, and all the patients were followed up until December 31, 2021. 1-, 3- and 5-year observed survival rate (OSR) and relative survival rate (RSR) were calculated and tested by Hakulinen likelihood ratio test method using SURV (3.01) software. Age-standardized relative survival rate (ARSR) was calculated according to the International Cancer Survival Standard (ICSS). Joinpoint (4.7.0.0) software was used to conduct the annual percentage change (APC) of pancreas cancer survival rate.Results:1-, 3- and 5-year OSR of pancreatic cancer were 13.82%, 5.87% and 4.70%, and 1-, 3- and 5-year RSR were 14.50%, 6.80% and 6.02%, respectively. 1-, 3- and 5-year RSR increased from 11.76%, 4.84% and 3.29% in 1972—1976 to 18.80%, 7.39% and 6.49% in 2012—2016. The uptrends of RSR were statistically significant (χ 2=59.84, P<0.001). 1-, 3- and 5-year RSR for male were 14.31%, 6.40% and 5.82%, and 1-, 3- and 5-year RSR for female were 14.74%, 7.28% and 6.26%, respectively. There was no statistically significant difference on RSR between male and female (χ 2=6.68, P=0.463). The 5-year RSR for the age group of 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, and ≥75 years old were 8.14%, 6.74%, 4.69% and 5.24%, respectively, and the survival rate was decreased with age. There was a statistically significant difference on RSR among different age groups (χ 2=19.52, P=0.012). 1-, 3- and 5-year ARSR of pancreas cancer were 14.67%, 6.84% and 6.04%. For male, 1-, 3- and 5-year ARSR were 14.36%, 6.42% and 5.79%, and for female were 15.25%, 7.55% and 6.47%, respectively. Period trend analysis showed that the APC of 1-, 3- and 5-year ARSR was 0.91% ( t=1.94, P=0.094), -0.22% ( t=-0.30, P=0.774) and -0.77% ( t=-0.95, P=0.374) from 1972 to 2016 in Qidong. The APC of 5-year ARSR in male and female were -1.50% ( t=-1.31, P=0.232) and 1.11% ( t=0.37, P=0.722); there were no statistically significant increase or decrease for both male and female among ARSR in nine periods (5 years as a period). The APC of 5-year RSR among 45-54, 55-64, 65-74 and ≥75 years old were 2.46% ( t=0.57, P=0.588), 3.16% ( t=0.87, P=0.413), 0.95% ( t=0.26, P=0.805) and -2.56% ( t=-2.61, P=0.035), respectively. Except for ≥75 years old age group who had a statistically significant downward trend, there were no statistically significant upward trend in the other age groups. Conclusions:The overall survival rate of pancreatic cancer in Qidong from 1972 to 2016 has been at a low level, and it is necessary to introduce a standardized multi-disciplinary treatment mode to improve treatment efficacy and survival rate.
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Objective:To analyze the gaps between the allocation of nursing human resources and the workload of emergency department and intensive care unit in Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University in Shanghai in the past five years, so as to provide basis for the formulation of optimal countermeasures for the allocation of nursing human resources.Methods:Based on the data from January 2016 to December 2020, a retrospective study was used to analyze the trend and correlation between the allocation of nursing human resources (educational background, professional title and years of work experience) and the workload of emergency department and intensive care unit(emergency rescue, 120 vehicle pick-up, triage of level-1 patient, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, central venous catheter intubation, organ transplantation, blood purification and endotracheal intubation). So as to explore the change trend of human resources and the workload of emergency department and intensive care unit in the past five years.Results:By the end of 2020, the proportion of the nurses with bachelor′s or master′s degree had reached 61.44% and the proportion of nurses with professional titles of nurse in charge and above reached 73.85% in emergency department. The structure of working years was relatively stable, and there was no obvious change trend. At the same time, the proportion of the nurses with bachelor′s or master′s degree has reached 57.62% and the proportion of nurses with professional titles of nurse in charge and above reached 63.42% in intensive care unit. The number of nurses who had worked for more than 5 years had shown an upward trend. However, the proportion of nurses with master′s degree or above was still small both in emergency department and intensive care unit. The workload of acute and critical care for nurses was increasing year by year. The average annual growth rates of nursing workload for triage of level-1 patient, blood purification, organ transplantation, central venous catheter intubation and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation were 8.94%, 9.06%, 11.07%, 18.50% and 28.32% respectively.Conclusions:The allocation of nursing human resources for emergency department and intensive care unit in Zhongshan hospital is changing towards personnel quality improvement and structure optimization, but there is still a shortage of high-level nursing personnel. And the workload of nurses in relevant departments is increasing year by year. Hospitals should actively explore the innovative way for the reform of the allocation of nursing human resource to ensure the balanced development of "quantity" and "quality" of nursing human resources for emergency department and intensive care unit.
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【Objective】 To retrospectively analyze the clinical use of low-dose blood components in Dongguan and the trend of clinical pediatric blood use, so as to provide reference for better preparation and inventory management of low-dose blood components in blood centers. 【Methods】 The clinical consumption of RBCs, platelets and plasma of Dongguan Blood Center from 2015 to 2020 was counted. The compositions and changes of low-dose blood components by specifications (0.25 U, 0.5 U), years and hospitals (public grade A general hospital, public grade A specialized hospital, private grade A hospital, private hospital equivalent to grade A, regional central hospital, public township hospital, small private hospital) were analyzed. 【Results】 The cumulative growth rates of low-dose RBCs, platelets, and plasma in 6 years were 10.78%, 1 098.55% and -29.41%, respectively, and the compound annual growth rates were 2.07%, 64.34% and -6.73%, respectively. The composition of low-dose blood components in RBCs, platelets and plasma was different (P<0.05) in different levels of hospitals, among which RBCs and plasma were the mostly used in public grade A specialized hospital, accounting for 45.08% (7 272 /16 133) and 53.18% (7 199/13 373) respectively, while platelets were the mostly used in private grade A management hospitals, accounting for 77.38% (3 393/4 385), dominated by apheresis platelets 53.84% (1 144/2 125) and irradiated apheresis platelets 99.51% (2 249/2 260). The composition ratios of 0.25 U and 0.5 U RBCs used in different hospitals were significantly different (P<0.05). The 0.25 U RBCs were used mostly in public grade A hospitals (62.60%, 3 502/5 594) and 0.5 U RBCs in public grade A specialized hospitals (62.09%, 6 544/10 539). 【Conclusion】 The total consumption of low-dose blood components in clinical pediatrics from 2015 to 2020 were as follows: platelets had increased significantly year by year, RBCs had increased steadily and with fluctuation, plasma had a downward trend year by year. The consumption volume and varieties used in different levels of hospitals were uneven, which may be related to the development of pediatrics departments in hospitals and their capabilities to conduct new business. Regular monitoring of the trend of low-dose blood component consumption is of great significance to guarantee the pediatric clinical blood supply.
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ObjectiveTo analyze the epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend of influenza-like illness in Xuhui District from 2010 to 2019， in order to understand the patterns of influenza epidemic of Xuhui District，and to provide evidence for the prevention and control of influenza in the future. MethodsSurveillance data of influenza-like illness （ILI） in Xuhui District from 2010 to 2019 were collected from the National Influenza Surveillance System for statistical description and trend analysis. ResultsFrom 2010 to 2019， the overall proportion of influenza-like illness was 0.54%. The annual proportions of ILI were between 0.35%~1.14%．The majority of cases were reported in age group of 25~59， accounted for 54.50% of the total ILI. A total of 9 053 throat swab specimens from ILI patients were collected and tested， from which 2 137 specimens were positive， with a positive rate of 23.61%. The most frequent subtype of influenza virus detected was influenza A virus （accounting for 67.62%）. The proportion of ILI and the positive rate of influenza virus nucleic acid detection reached the peak in summer and winter over time. There was a positive correlation between the proportion of ILI and the positive rate of influenza （r=0.666， P<0.01）. From 2010 to 2019， both ILI% and nucleic acid positive rate of influenza virus showed a downward trend. ConclusionThe incidence of influenza shows a downward trend in Xuhui District， with two peaks in summer and winter. The most susceptible individuals are in 25~59 age group. The dominant strains of influenza virus alternate regularly， influenza A（H3N2） dominate the summer epidemic peak while the epidemic peak in winter is dominated by influenza A（H1N1） and influenza B.
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ObjectiveTo analyze the epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend of influenza-like illness in Xuhui District from 2010 to 2019， in order to understand the patterns of influenza epidemic of Xuhui District，and to provide evidence for the prevention and control of influenza in the future. MethodsSurveillance data of influenza-like illness （ILI） in Xuhui District from 2010 to 2019 were collected from the National Influenza Surveillance System for statistical description and trend analysis. ResultsFrom 2010 to 2019， the overall proportion of influenza-like illness was 0.54%. The annual proportions of ILI were between 0.35%~1.14%．The majority of cases were reported in age group of 25~59， accounted for 54.50% of the total ILI. A total of 9 053 throat swab specimens from ILI patients were collected and tested， from which 2 137 specimens were positive， with a positive rate of 23.61%. The most frequent subtype of influenza virus detected was influenza A virus （accounting for 67.62%）. The proportion of ILI and the positive rate of influenza virus nucleic acid detection reached the peak in summer and winter over time. There was a positive correlation between the proportion of ILI and the positive rate of influenza （r=0.666， P<0.01）. From 2010 to 2019， both ILI% and nucleic acid positive rate of influenza virus showed a downward trend. ConclusionThe incidence of influenza shows a downward trend in Xuhui District， with two peaks in summer and winter. The most susceptible individuals are in 25~59 age group. The dominant strains of influenza virus alternate regularly， influenza A（H3N2） dominate the summer epidemic peak while the epidemic peak in winter is dominated by influenza A（H1N1） and influenza B.